Global Finance Report - Collinson FX

Tuesday, July 11, 2017


The week was completed with stronger than expected US Employment data. US Non Farm Payrolls beat expectations giving markets a boost. The week culminated in the G20 meeting in Hamburg, which resulted in some fantastic photo shots of G20 leaders, while Hamburg was under siege from anti-globalist protesters. The G20 did result is the growing riift between the US and European leaders over Climate Change and Trade. The climate change fallout will severely disadvantage developed nations, who signed up for the Paris agreement, with the US withdrawal signalling a growing comparative advantage on energy. China, India and other developing nations received a free pass in the Paris agreement, but developed nations have agreed to measures that hike power costs, which make input prices so much more expensive. Trump has rejected this and swears to use all energy, including fossil fuels, assuming a massive advatage to means of production. Trade is also an issue, although Trump is pro-bilateral trade, rather than multilateral. The impact on global trade is yet to be seen. The coming week will focus on the appearance of Fed President Yellen in front of congress and the associated speculation and interpretation. The EUR will launch the week around 1.1400, while the GBP continues to battle Brexit speculation, trading 1.2900. The AUD regained 0.7600, severely dependent on commodity prices, thus demand. Fed policy will impact the US Dollar which drive the reserve, thus the AUD. Watch for direction from Central Bank speculation as a quiet week of economic data release is expected.

 

10/7 NZ Home Sales, Japan Trade, China CPI, German Trade Exports/Imports

 

11/7 Australia NAB Consumer Confidence, NFIB Small Business Optimism

 

12/7 Australia WBC Consumer Confidence, UK Employment, EU Industrial Production, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, Fed release Yellen testimony, Biege Book

 

13/7 China Trade Exports/Imports, NZ Consumer Confidence, German CPI, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Senate appearance for Yellen

 

14/7 NZ Manufacturing PMI, Japan Industrial Production, EU Trade, US CPI, US Retail Sales, US Manufacturing/Industrial Production, University of Michigan Sentiment