Collinson Forex - Weekly Market Commentary and Calendar

Monday, June 11, 2018


Weekly Market Commentary

This is a 'huge week' in a year of 'huge weeks'! Trump arrives at the G7 amidst a storm of controversy. Other G7 members are seeking to ambush Trump and force a change on his trade policies, while pushing their Globalist Agenda. Trump has imposed tariffs on Europe and Canada, on Steel and Aluminium, while they have retaliated. Trump has dictated a penchant for reciprocal, bi-lateral trade agreements. This contradicts the existing, multi-lateral agreements, that have allowed recalcitrant members to impose a raft of their own tariffs and protectionist policies. The US is negotiating from a position of strength, with the world's best 'deal maker', while the massive trade imbalance ensures some modicum of success. Trump will then head to the 'Singapore Peace Summit' with North Korea! Onwards and upwards!

An action packed Geo-Political week ahead, will be punctuated with important global economic data releases and Central Bank action. The FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. There has been strong speculation, that the ECB may announce some tightening of monetary policy, which has driven some recent support for the EUR. The Fed is likely to actually raise rates! Central Bank activity will drive markets, later in the week, while the G7 and Singapore Peace Summit may distract earlier in the week. Global Trade is essential to the heavily trade dependent, commodity exporting nations, including Australia and NZ. Global upheaval will impact, along with some fallout out from currency crises in South America. The AUD slipped below 0.7000, after a spike following strong GDP growth data, while the NZD has settled above 0.7000.

 Weekly Market Calendar

 11/6 NZ Manufacturing, UK Trade, UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production, UK GDP

12/6 NZ Credit Card Spending, Japan Manufacturing, Australia Business Confidence, UK Employment, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment, NFIB Small Business Optimism, US CPI, US Budget

13/6 NZ Food Prices, Australia Consumer Confidence, UK CPI, EU Industrial Production, EU Employment, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, FOMC Meeting

14/6 Australia Inflation data, Australia Employment, China Retail Sales, China Industrial Production, Japan Industrial Production, German CPI, UK Retail Sales, ECB Rate Decision, US Retail Sales, US Weekly Jobless Claims

15/6 NZ Manufacturing, Bank of Japan Rate Decision, China New House Prices, EU Trade, EU CPI, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production, University of Michigan Sentiment

Paul Bettany

Collinson & Co