Weekly Market Commentary
Markets rallied strongly to close the trading week, boosted by strong corporate earnings from the United States, lead by JP Morgan. The Banks love rising interest rates and they have made hay while the sun shines, despite the Fed moving to a more dovish monetary policy. The rhetoric coming from the Fed, ECB and IMF has been negative, with global growth warnings, but progress on the US/China Trade negotiations has boosted confidence. Chinese exports exploded in their latest data release, more than doubling expectations, which is a very positive sign for global commodity demand. This boosted the commodity currencies, with the AUD jumping to 0.7170, while the NZD pushed up to 0.6770.
European markets have been mired in 'Brexit' chaos, but agreed to extend the Brexit date until 31st of October, further kicking the can down the road. The impasse will not be broken until British Parliamentarians agree to implement the will of the people. This will require a change in leadership and personnel. The Tories will need to change the Cabinet and PM, or a general election will be necessary to replace all Members of Parliament. The GBP settled around 1.3070, while the EUR pushed towards 1.1300, with the deadline pressure delayed.
The next two weeks are abbreviated due to the Easter holidays, but welcome a plethora of economic data, lead by GDP and CPI numbers. Global growth and international trade developments will likely dominate markets.
Weekly Market Calendar
15/4 NZ Services PMI, UK House Prices, NZ Dairy Auction, Empire State Manufacturing
16/4 Australian Consumer Confidence, China New Home Sales, RBA Minutes, UK Employment, EU Construction, German/EU ZEW Sentiment, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production, NAHB House Market Index
17/4 NZ CPI, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, China Industrial Production, China Retail Sales, China GDP, Japan Industrial Production, EU Current Account, UK CPI, EU Trade Exports/Imports, EU CPI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Trade, Biege Book
18/4 Australian Business Confidence, Australian Employment, France/German/EU Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, US Retail Sales, Philly Fed Survey, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Leading Indicators, Japan CPI
19/4 US Housing Starts, US Building Permits, Easter
Paul Bettany
Collinson Forex
Mobile 0406-744-923
paul@collinsonfx.com