Daily Market Commentary
The war in Israel appears to be escalating and threatening stability in the region and around the world. The Ukraine war also marches on and these conflicts are disrupting production and supply, with further escalation threatening global markets. The impact on markets has been extremely negative, with equities crashing and bond yields on the rise. This coming week will be important on the Geo-Political front but also on the economic data front. There is a plethora of data releases, including multiple inflation and growth readings across Europe and Central Bank rate decisions. The Bank of Japan, The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all reviewing their latest rate decisions, although none are expected to lift rates. All of the Central Banks are expected to drive intense speculation and volatility before the actual decision. Market attention will also be focused on key US employment reports culminating in the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The EUR trades below 1.0600, to close out the week, while the GBP tries to hold above 1.2100.
Commodity prices are firming, with all of the Geo-Political uncertainty, so the commodity currencies have been able to hold onto, albeit low levels. The AUD has consolidated above 0.6300, while the NZD has attempted to hold above 0.5800. There is a lot of local economic data releases, in the coming week, but markets will be firmly focused on offshore Geo-Political issues.
Weekly Market Calendar
30/11 Australia Retail Sales, Spain CPI, German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, German CPI
31/10 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, NZ Building Permits, Japan Employment, Japan Industrial Production/Retail Sales, NZ Business Confidence, China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMI, Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Japan Consumer Confidence/Housing Starts, France GDP, German Retail Sales, France CPI/PPI, EU CPI/GDP, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI
1/11 US Consumer Confidence, RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report
2/11 ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jolts Jobs Report, Fed Rate Decision, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI, German Employment, Norges Bank Rate Decision, Challenger Jobs Report, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims
3/11 US Factory Orders, US Total Vehicle Sales, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, Australia Retail Sales, German Trade Exports/Imports, France Industrial Production, UK Services/Composite PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment, US Services/Composite PMI, ISM Services PMI