Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Calendar

Daily Market Commentary

Non-Farm Payrolls missed expectations, coming in at 150,000 jobs added for the month, lower than the expected 180,000. This is exactly what the Fed has been looking for, as the final piece of the piece of the inflation puzzle. The labour market has remained robust, adding to inflationary pressures, but it now seems to be turning the corner. The Fed has left rates unchanged and hinted at 'peak inflation' and 'peak interest rates'. Bond yields continue to tumble fast, as does the US Dollar, with the EUR rising to 1.0730, while the GBP approaches 1.2400! Geo-Political crises appear to be settling down, as confidence floods back to markets.
 
The softer reserve allowed the commodity currencies to regain further lost ground, with the AUD breaking 0.6500, while the NZD looks to regain the 'BIG' figure of 0.6000! This was despite weaker than expected economic data, with Australian PMI numbers in serious contraction mode. The coming week will be dominated by inflation, growth and Geo-Political developments. On local markets, Australia will await the Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, to decide on interest rates. It is expected that the Melbourne Cup may camouflage a rate rise, from the dovish RBA Governor. NZ will look at the hope of a new Government forming, the make-up and policies, while China will announce CPI/PPI numbers.

Weekly Market Calendar

30/11 Australia Retail Sales, Spain CPI, German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, German CPI
 
31/10 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, NZ Building Permits, Japan Employment, Japan Industrial Production/Retail Sales, NZ Business Confidence, China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMI, Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Japan Consumer Confidence/Housing Starts, France GDP, German Retail Sales, France CPI/PPI, EU CPI/GDP, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI
 
1/11 US Consumer Confidence, RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report
 
2/11 ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jolts Jobs Report, Fed Rate Decision, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI, German Employment, Norges Bank Rate Decision, Challenger Jobs Report, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims
 
3/11 US Factory Orders, US Total Vehicle Sales, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, Australia Retail Sales, German Trade Exports/Imports, France Industrial Production, UK Services/Composite PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment, US Services/Composite PMI, ISM Services PMI

PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO

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