IATA - Market Analysis September 2023

Robust third quarter concludes with strong passenger growth

• In September, the industry showed continued strength in the air travel recovery, with revenue passenger-kilometers (RPKs) growing 30.1% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 97.3% of 2019 levels.
• Available seat-kilometers (ASKs) rebounded by 28.8% YoY, recovering to 96.5% of pre-pandemic capacity. Industry-wide passenger load factors rose to 82.6%.
• Domestic passenger traffic achieved 28.3% annual growth in September, and surpassed 2019 RPKs by 5.0%. International passenger traffic resumed recovery, with international RPKs increasing by 31.2% compared to the same month a year ago, reaching 93.1% of pre-pandemic levels.
• Despite these positive trends, slowing domestic demand and ticket sales highlight potential challenges in the industry's recovery.

Modest uptrend in cargo volumes amid soft demand drivers

• Industry cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) were up 1.9% year-on-year (YoY) in September. Compared to the pre-Covid level, global CTKs remained 1.3% lower.
• Air cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 12.1% YoY, driven by the strong growth of international belly cargo capacity from airlines in the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East regions.
• Global trade experienced the fifth annual decline in a row, falling 3.8% in August. This slump in trade was also reflected in the slowdown in global new export orders PMIs and among all the major economies.
• Inflation in the US remained flat in September, while the trend in the producer prices was mixed. The recent surge in global jet fuel prices led to an increase in air cargo yields for the first time since November 2022.

• Airlines in the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, and North America regions all registered annual growth in their international CTKs in September, with Asia Pacific airlines seeing the strongest growth.