Non Farm Payrolls beat expectations and US headline Unemployment fell to 3.7%, from 3.9%. The stronger than expected report was brushed off by markets but may be considered at next weeks interest rate decision from the Fed. This coming week will be highlighted by rate decisions from the FOMC, the Bank of England and the ECB. All are expected to leave rates unchanged for 2023, but the stronger than expected labour market report in the US, may lend to some hawkish (higher for longer) language. The NFP report pushed bond yields higher in the US and added some upside momentum to the US Dollar. The EUR slipped back to trade 1.0750, while the GBP drifted back to 1.2540.
The stronger reserve pushed the commodity currencies lower, with the AUD falling back to 0.6550, while the NZD headed back towards 0.6100. Markets will be focused on major Central Banks and inflation, this coming week, while speculating on the arrival of rate cuts in 2024.
Weekly Market Calendar
11/12 Denmark Current Account/CPI, Norway CPI/PPI
12/12 NZ Credit Card Spending, Australia Consumer Confidence, Japan PPI, Australia Business Confidence, UK Employment, EU/German ZEW Economic Sentiment
13/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism, US CPI, NZ Current Account, NZ Food Inflation, Tankan Report, UK GDP/ Trade, UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production, EU Industrial Production
14/12 US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US PPI, German Current Account, FOMC Meeting, NZ GDP, Australian Inflation Report, Australian Employment, Japan Industrial Production, EC Meeting
15/12 BoE Rate Decision, ECB Rate Decision, US Retail Sales, US Weekly Jobless Claims, NZ Business PMI, Australia/Japan Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI, UK Consumer Confidence, China Industrial Production/Retail Sales/Employment, France CPI, UK/France/Germany/EU Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI, EU Trade, Empire State Manufacturing Index, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production, US Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI
PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO
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