Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, February 19, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

US markets closed out the week on a softer note, with equities trading off their recent highs, overshadowed by the inflation readings on both side of the Atlantic. US and UK inflation were both higher than expected, adding pressure on Central Banks to leave interest rates 'higher for longer'. US PPI, released Friday, was also elevated, confirming inflationary pressures. The UK GDP number confirmed that the British economy was in a technical recession, begging the Bank of England to initiate rate cuts sooner, rather than later. This coming week will again focus on growth and inflation, while Asian markets will heat up, having been quiet over the Chinese, lunar New Year. The pressure on the Federal Reserve to leave rates at these high levels has preserved the strength of the US Dollar, pushing the EUR back to 1.0750, while the GBP slipped below 1.2600.

Commodity currencies stabilised after a week of trial, with the AUD regaining 0.6500, while the NZD looks to consolidate above 0.6100. The longer the Fed preserve high rates the longer the commodity currencies suffer as interest rate differentials contract. Look closely at PMI data across markets, Asia, Europe and the USA

Weekly Market Calendar

19/2 NZ Commodity PCI, NZ Services PSI, Sweden/Finland CPI, Canada PPI

20/2 RBA Minutes, EU Current Account, Canada CPI

21/2 NZ Dairy Prices, NZ PPI, TANKAN Report, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, US Weekly Mortgage Applications

22/2 EU Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes, NZ Trade Exports/Imports, Australia/Japan flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, NZ Credit Card Spending, France Business Confidence, UK/France/Germany/EU flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, EU CPI, ECB Accounts, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, US Weekly Jobless Claims

23/2 US flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, US Existing Homes Sales, NZ Retail Sales, France Consumer Confidence, German Ifo Business Confidence

PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO

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