International trade is expected to rebound in 2024 after experiencing declines for several quarters.
Preliminary figures indicate a $1 trillion contraction in global trade in 2023, driven primarily by subdued demand in developed nations and weaker trade within East Asia and Latin American regions.
While trade in goods decreased during 2023, trade in services continued to grow, signalling resilience amidst challenging conditions.
After facing declines over several quarters, international trade is poised for a rebound in 2024, according to the latest Global Trade Update from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
In 2023, global trade saw a 3% contraction, equalling roughly $1 trillion, compared to the record high of $32 trillion in 2022. Despite this decline, the services sector showed resilience with a $500 billion, or 8%, increase from the previous year, while trade in goods experienced a $1.3 trillion, or 5%, decline compared to 2022.
The fourth quarter of 2023 marked a departure from previous quarters, with both merchandise and services trade stabilizing quarter-over-quarter. Developing countries, especially those in the African, East Asian and South Asian regions, experienced growth in trade during this period.
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