Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, May 27, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

Markets closed out a volatile week, on a positive note, with the Tech-Heavy NASDAQ hitting all-time record highs. The DOW had a reality check this week gone by, suffering heavy losses mid-week, due to warnings from the Fed that much anticipated interest rate cuts, would not likely come until September. German GDP moved back into positive territory, marginally and conveniently, away from the technical recession. This coming week will gauge GDP growth in many other European Countries and the USA. The European growth numbers will probably be manipulated to achieve growth barely above zero, while US growth is expected to tumble significantly. This coming week will also see the release of important inflation data from both the US and Europe, thus influencing the timing of the much anticipated Central Bank rate cuts. The USD drifted lower to close on Friday, which saw the GBP regain 1.2700, while the EUR broke back above 1.0800.

The softer reserve allowed commodity currencies to stabilise, with the AUD regaining 0.6600, while the NZD pushed back above 0.6100. Commodity currencies will be heavily influenced by inflation and growth numbers, from the US and Europe, in the coming week. Any signs of resurgent inflation will serve to stiffen the USD or EUR respectively, thus influencing the relativity of the commodity currencies.

Weekly Market Calendar

27/5 US Memorial Day Holiday, German Ifo Business Climate
 
28/5 Australia Retail Sales, German Wholesale Prices, France Employment, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
 
29/5 US Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, NZ Business Confidence, Australia Inflation Index, German Consumer Confidence, France Consumer Confidence, Poland CPI, German CPI
 
30/5 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Fed's Biege Book, NZ Building Permits, NZ Budget, Australia Building Permits, Spain CPI, EU Consumer Confidence, US GDP, US Weekly Jobless Claims
 
31/5 US Pending Home Sales, Japan Employment, Tokyo CPI/Industrial Production/Retail Sales/Housing Starts, China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMI, Japan Housing Starts, German Retail Sales, Australia Commodity Prices, France CPI, France GDP, Austria CPI/GDP, Italy GDP, EU CPI, Italy CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE Inflation Indicator, Chicago PMI

PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO

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