Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, June 3, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

US equity markets rallied strongly on Friday, .to close out a strong month of May, with high expectations of Central Bank rate cuts. European markets are expecting the ECB to cut rates as soon as next week, back to 4.25%, which is fuelling a big rally on share markets. The US PCE inflation indicator came out Friday, in line with expectations, dismissing fears over rejuvenated inflation in the US economy. European nations are gradually moving back to growth, confirmed by GDP data, and moving away from the 'technical recession'. This enabled the US Dollar to ease, and the EUR to push up to 1.0850, while the GBP consolidates back above 1.2700. There is an avalanche of data set to be released across all markets in the coming week, which begins Monday with PMI data from Asia. Europe and the USA. This coming week has in addition, a plethora of data including trade, growth and employment. The US will focus on labour markets, while the ECB are set to make their much anticipated decision to cut interest rates (or not). EU elections are also coming later in the week, so expect big moves on markets.

The weaker reserve currency has allowed further recovery in the commodity currencies, with the AUD pushing up to 0.6650, while the NZD consolidates above 0.6100. Expect a fast start to the trading week, in all but NZ, which celebrates their King's Birthday, with a holiday. Markets will be looking for softer labour markets, improving trade numbers and economic growth.

Weekly Market Calendar

3/6 NZ King's Birthday Holiday, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, Australia Job Ads, Australia Commodity Prices, Austria GDP/Employment, UK/France/Germany/EU Manufacturing PMI, US/Canada Manufacturing PMI
 
4/6 ISM Manufacturing PMI, Australia Current Account/Retail Sales, German Employment
 
5/6 US Factory Orders, Jolts Jobs Report, NZ Dairy Prices/Terms of Trade, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, Australia GDP, UK/France/German/EU Services/Composite PMI, EU PPI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report, US/Canada Services/Composite PMI
 
6/6 ISM Services PMI, Russia GDP, European Elections, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, German Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, Challenger Jobs Report, ECB IRD, US/Canada Trade Exports/Imports, US Weekly Jobless Claims
 
7/6 NZ Manufacturing Sales, China Trade Exports/Imports, German Trade Exports/Imports, France Trade Exports/Imports/Current Account, EU GDP, Russia IRD, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment, EU Elections

PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO

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