Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, June 17, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

European markets went pear-shaped Friday, to close out a week of political turmoil, in Europe. The European elections saw a repudiation of the ruling political parties in Europe, enough so to prompt the Franch President to call a snap Parliamentary election and force the resignation of the Belgian PM. The looming UK elections will almost certainly see the terrible Conservative Government be sent packing, only to be replaced by a probable Labour led Government. Europe is sadly led by an extremely disconnected elites, except in a couple of peripheral Countries. The looming elections may not fix the problem, because of institutional political circumstances, but will certainly show the peoples dissatisfaction, The root of the problem is political, but is reflected in the economic decline in Europe, that has triggered the peoples growing dissatisfaction. This is manifested in the recent political upheaval, rebelling against war, sanctions and tumbling standards of living. European equity market crashed on Friday, in reaction, and looks set for a volatile near future. The EUR crashed below 1.0700, while the GBP slumped to 1.2680.

The firmer reserve forced commodity currencies lower, with the AUD barely holding 0.6600, while the NZD fell to 0.6120. The coming week will be focused heavily on growth and inflation, as always. The RBA and Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision, this coming week and no changes are expected, but the narrative will be extremely important. European political turmoil will likely continue and the US will not be immune. The fall of the Petro/$$ has gone largely unnoticed, but this will have a significant impact on currencies and economies, as the serious and fundamental repercussion unwind.

Weekly Market Calendar

17/6 NZ PSI/Composite PCI, Australia Job Ads, Australia Inflation Report, China House Price Index, China Industrial Production/Retail Sales/Employment
 
18/6 RBA IRD, EU CPI, EU/German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US Retail Sales. US Industrial Production/Manufacturing Production
 
19/6 NZ Dairy Prices, NZ Current Account. Tankan Report, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, UK CPI, EU Current Account
 
20/6 NAHB House Market Index, NZ Consumer Confidence, NZ GDP, German PPI, ECB Meeting, Bank of England IRD, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Current Account
 
21/6 Australia/Japan flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, Japan CPI, NZ Credit Card Spending. Japan Retail Sales, UK/France/German/EU flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, US existing Home Sales. US flash Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI


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