Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Daily Market Commentary

The much-anticipated PCE inflation indicator came in exactly as forecast, at 2.6%. This expected inflation level, did nothing for market direction, but Bond Yields jumped higher in Europe and the USA. This points to a market perception that the Fed will not be cutting rates any time soon. UK GDP numbers came in positive, as expected, ending the technical recession. This was a much-needed boost for the flailing Conservative Government, ahead of an expected bloodbath election for the Tories, this coming week. French Parliamentary elections also promise a bloodbath for the Macron Government, which could have consequences throughout Europe. The political tide is turning in Europe and the USA. The EU elections showed an emerging right of Centre political bias, which was also a trend confirmed in the US with the Presidential debate. The 'sharp and quick witted' Biden confirmed what most knew, he is living in a demented world and should not be leading the USA. The EUR held around 1.0700, while the GBP drifted back to 1.2620, despite the improvement in GDP growth.
 
Commodity currencies remain under pressure, with the NZD trading below 0.6100, while the AUD hovers around 0.6650. The Yen is the currency under the most pressure, hitting lows not seen since 1986, plunging to 161.27. This coming week will see a focus on inflation in Europe, while US markets will be watching employment numbers closely. A series of employment reports will be coming out this week, culminating in Non-Farm Payrolls, released Friday. The week may start off strongly, but the Independence Day holiday in the US, falls on Thursday. Many will take a four-day weekend, thus ensuring a very short trading week.

Weekly Market Commentary

1/7 China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/General PMI, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, Australia Job Ads, UK House Prices, UK/France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI, German CPI, US Manufacturing PMI
 
2/7 ISM Manufacturing PMI, NZ Business Confidence, RBA Minutes, EU CPI
 
3/7 Jolts Jobs Report, NZ Dairy Prices, NZ Building Permits, UK/France/German/EU Services/Composite PMI, Tankan Report, Australia Building Permits/Retail Sales, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, EU PPI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, Challenger Jobs Report, ADP Jobs Report, US Trade Exports/Imports, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Services/Composite PMI
 
4/7 US Independence Day Holiday, UK Elections, US Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, German Factory Orders
 
5/7 Australia Retail Sales, German Industrial Production, France Trade Exports/Imports, France Current Account, EU Retail Sales, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment

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