Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, July 15, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

The DOW closed the week on 40,000, for the first time in history, confirming the confidence equity markets have in the Fed cutting interest rates. The week confirmed inflation was on the decline and the Labour market is getting softer, allowing the Fed the opportunity to cut rates. The US PPI was quietly released on Friday, which showed upward pressure but was largely ignored by markets. The economy is falling into recession, which is the true cure to inflation, while deficit and debt spending also continues at record levels. This coming week is a huge week for data and statistics, highlighted by inflation numbers, growth and the ECB's latest interest rate decision. The US Dollar has reacted accordingly, with the EUR jumping to 1.0870, while the GBP fast approaches 1.3000.

The weaker reserve has allowed commodity currencies to continue to recover, with the NZD regaining 0.6100, while the AUD looks to recapture 0.6800. A big week on local markets, with Australian Employment data set to be released and NZ quarterly inflation numbers. If inflation continues to plummet in NZ, then the RBNZ will likely begin to cut rates, which may have downside pressure impact on the KIWI.

Weekly Market Calendar

15/7 NZ Services PSI/NZ Composite PCI, EU Meeting, China Communist Party Third Plenary, China GDP, China Industrial Production/Retail Sales/Employment, German Retail Sales, EU Industrial Production, Empire State Manufacturing Index
 
16/7 EU Finance Ministers Meeting, Italy CPI, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales
 
17/7 NAHB House Market Index, NZ Dairy Prices, Tankan Report, UK CPI, EU CPI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production
 
18/7 Fed's Beige Book, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, Australia Employment, ECB IRD, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
 
19/7 NZ CPI, UK Consumer Confidence, Japan CPI, German PPI, UK Retail Sales, EU Current Account

Paul Bettany   I   Collinson Forex Limited    Collinson & Co.  

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