Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Monday, August 26, 2024


Daily Market Commentary

Markets got what they were looking for from the keynote speaker, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He came up with the magic words Central Bankers and market analysts have been waiting to hear, 'the time has come for policy to adjust'. Powell has effectively green-lighted the new monetary cycle of lower rates. Equity markets rallied on the news, with surging market confidence, bonds yields retreated, as did the US Dollar. The EUR spiked to 1.1200, while the GBP jumped above 1.3200.

The weaker reserve allowed for further gains in commodity currencies, with the AUD looking to regain 0.6800, while the NZD consolidates above 0.6200. This coming week will closely monitor growth and inflation number in Asia, Europe and the USA. European growth is expected to be benign, while US inflation is expected to continue to soften. The important PCE number, in the US, will be released at the end of the coming week. The Fed treats this inflation measure with extreme respect, so this is likely to either confirm this week's market confidence, or throw 'a spanner in the works'.

Weekly Market Commentary

26/8 German Ifo Business Climate, US Durable Goods Orders
 
27/8 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, German GDP, Sweden PPI, Belgium CPI, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
 
28/8 US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, German Consumer Confidence, France Consumer Confidence, France Employment, US Weekly Mortgage Application
 
29/8 NZ Business Confidence, Sweden GDP, Spain CPI, German CPI, US GDP, US Weekly Jobless Claims
 
30/8 US Pending Home Sales, NZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Building Permits, Tokyo CPI, Japan Industrial Production/Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, Japan Consumer Confidence/Housing Starts, German Retail Sales, Japan CPI, France GDP/PPI, German Employment, EU CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Economic Sentiment
 

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