Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Daily Market Commentary

Global equity markets surged to record highs Friday, wiping out 'correction level' losses suffered earlier in August, blamed on fears of a US recession. The economic data coming out of Europe and the US has improved and eliminated fears of a recession. Interest rate cuts from the ECB and Bank of England have stimulated growth, without too much of a resurgence in inflation. The prospects of the Fed's monetary policy changing to an easing bias has surged confidence in the economy and share markets. The US Dollar regained some ground, to close out the week and month, with the EUR falling back below 1.1100, while the GBP drifted to 1.3130.

Surging confidence in global markets have supported a recovery in commodity prices and the associated currencies. The AUD retraced from 0.6800, while the NZD looks to regain 0.6250, following strong business confidence numbers. This coming week will focus on US labour reports, culminating in Fridays Non-Farm Payrolls number. The expectations are not high, following the massive revision lower of the year's numbers, not so long ago. Confidence in the numbers must have taken a big hit and should question the validity of jobs growth, in the US. The Bank of Canada is expected to cuts interest rates this week, following the ECB and Bank of England and ahead of the Fed's expected change in monetary policy.

Weekly Market Calendar

2/9 Australia/Japan/India/China Manufacturing PMI, Australia Building Permits/Job Ads, Australia Commodity Prices, Austria GDP, UK/France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI
 
3/9 NZ Terms of Trade Export/Import Prices, Australia Current Account, US/Canada Manufacturing PMI
 
4/9 ISM Manufacturing PMI, NZ Dairy Prices, Australia/India/China/Japan Services/Composite PMI, Australia GDP, UK/France/German/EU Services/Composite PMI, EU PPI
US Weekly Mortgage Applications, Canada/US Trade Exports/Imports, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
 
5/9 US Factory Orders, Fed's Beige Book, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, German Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, Challenger/ADP Jobs Reports, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Canada/US Services/Composite PMI
 
6/9 ISM Services PMI, German Trade Exports/Imports, France Trade Exports/Imports/Current Account, EU GDP, Canada Employment, US Non-Farm Payrolls/Employment