Daily Market Commentary
Markets closed out the week strongly, with equities surging and the US Dollar easing, as confidence returns. The focus has been on inflation and interest rates, but as inflation has eased, the pressure on Central Banks to ease rates has materialised. The ECB, Bank of England and others, have already began to cut rates, to stimulate economic activity and ease pressure on the consumer. The Fed is expected to follow suit in the coming week. This has driven the surge in economic sentiment and allowed equities to trade around record levels. This coming week is a fest of Central Banks and their interest rate decisions. This should provide upward momentum to equities, downward pressure on bond yields and the US Dollar. The EUR closed above 1.1050, while the GBP broke back above 1.3100.
Commodity currencies have staged a recovery with growing economic confidence, as the AUD looks to regain 0.6700, while the NZD trade around 0.6150. This coming week will be focused on inflation and Central Bank rate decisions, globally, but domestic data may have some influence on trade. New Zealand GDP growth numbers will be closely followed, while Australia Employment data, will play a key role in RBA future plans. The only real threat to market confidence, is economic growth and Geo=Political events, as Europe struggles out of a recession and the US hopes to avoid one.
Weekly Market Calendar
16/9 NZ Business PSI, UK House Prices, Italy CPI, EU Trade, Empire State Manufacturing Index
17/9 EU/German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada CPI/Industrial Production, NAHB House Market Index, NZ Current Account, Japan Trade Exports/Imports
18/9 UK CPI/PPI, EU CPI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, FOMC IRD, NZ GDP
19/9 Australia Employment, EU Current Account, Bank of England IRD, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Current Account, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Existing Home Sales, Japan CPI
20/9 China PBoC IRD, Bank of Japan IRD, NZ Credit Card Spending, German PPI, UK Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence
Paul Bettany I Collinson Forex Limited Collinson & Co.
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