Collinson Forex Daily Market Commentary and Weekly Market Calendar

Daily Market Calendar

US Retail Sales turned negative, in the latest reading, reflecting lower consumer confidence and weak domestic demand. Trump announced 'Reciprocal Tariffs' for the entire world, and this set a cat amongst the pigeons, with the US Dollar crashing. The EUR spiked to 1.0500, while the GBP hit 1.2600, despite gloomy economic conditions in both the UK and Europe. Germany has found the solution to inflation, deep and extended recession, as their CPI flatlined at 2.3%. This coming week will kick off slowly, as the US celebrates the President's Day Holiday, while other markets await the latest policy shocks from the US.
 
Local markets will be focused on Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions (IRD's), coming from China (PBoC), Australia (RBA) and New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBA is expected to embark of interest rates cuts, for the first time in this economic cycle, while the RBNZ is expected to continue to cut, and perhaps by 50 basis points. The Australasian economies are suffering economically recessionary conditions and require monetary and fiscal stimulus, due to poor economic management. The RBA has been reticent, due to stubborn inflation, but may finally flick the switch. Commodity currencies begin the week strongly due to the precipitous fall in the reserve, with the AUD jumping to 0.6350, while the NZD broke back above 0.5700.

Weekly Market Commentary

17/2 US Presidents Day Holiday, Japan GDP Q4, UK House Prices, Japan Industrial Production, EU trade
 
18/2 RBA IRD, France CPI, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB House Market Index
 
19/2 NZ PPI, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, RBNZ IRD, UK CPI/PPI, EU Current Account, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits/Housing Starts. FOMC Minutes
 
20/2 Australia Employment, PBoC IRD, German PPI, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, EU Consumer Confidence, NZ trade Exports/Imports, US Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, Japan CPI
 
21/2 UK Consumer Confidence, Japan Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, UK Retail Sales, UK/France/German/EU Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, US Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, US Existing Home Sales, University of Michigan Economic Sentiment

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