OECD - GDP growth slows abruptly to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD rose by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly down from an 0.5% rise in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates (Figure 1). This figure represents a departure from the higher and relatively stable growth rates recorded in the OECD area over the past two years (Table 1).

The overall GDP growth rate also slowed for the G7 in Q1 2025, from 0.4% to 0.1%, reflecting a mixed picture among G7 countries. GDP contracted in Japan and the United States, from 0.6% in both countries to -0.2% and -0.1%, respectively. In Japan, imports of goods increased by 2.4% in Q1 2025, compared with a contraction of 1.6% in Q4 2024. In the United States, imports of goods increased sharply by 10.8% in Q1, compared with a contraction of 1.3% in Q4. The rise in US imports of goods, likely influenced by anticipated changes to trade tariffs,¹ was the main drag on growth. Growth also slowed in Canada, from 0.6% to 0.4%.

By contrast, growth accelerated significantly in the United Kingdom, from 0.1% to 0.7%, mainly driven by increases in investment (2.9% in Q1, after a contraction of 0.6% in Q4) and exports of goods (5.6% in Q1, after a contraction of 7.3% in Q4). Growth increased marginally in Italy (from 0.2% to 0.3%), and it turned positive in Germany (0.2%) and France (0.1%).

Among other OECD economies for which data is available, 17 countries experienced slowdowns in growth in Q1 2025 compared with Q4 2024, resulting in negative growth in four countries. Slovenia recorded the largest fall in GDP in Q1 (-0.8%), followed by Portugal (-0.5%). Ireland recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Q1 (3.2%).

Year-on-year, GDP growth in the OECD was 1.6% in Q1 2025, down from 1.9% in Q4 2024 (Table 2). Among G7 economies, Canada recorded the highest growth over the last four quarters (2.3%), followed by the United States (2.0%), while Germany recorded the largest fall (-0.2%).