Daily Market Commentary
Markets rallied, to close out a strong week of gains, on US equity markets. The confirmation from China, that a trade agreement has been reached with the USA, boosting market confidence. Late in the US trading day, it was announced that trade negotiations with Canada, were completely halted. This was triggered by Canada imposing a new 'Digital Services Tax' on US tech firms. The Canadian Government will learn a harsh lesson, and back track very quickly, as they are almost totally dependent on US trade. This coming week is a shortened trading week on US markets, as they close for US Independence Day Friday. The US Dollar remains soft, with the EUR hitting 1.1700, while the GBP rallied to 1.3700.
The deadline for global trade agreements is July 9th, which is fast approaching, so NZ and Australia will be extremely nervous. The political leaders from both Countries have been critical of US policy and may experience 'FAFO'. Trade dependent nations cannot afford poor relations with the largest economy in the world. This is one reason that commodity currencies have not rallied strongly, in the face of an extremely weak reserve currency. The AUD closed out the week trading above 0.6500, while the NZD consolidates above 0.6000, although the next two weeks are critical.
Dates & Headline
30/6 Japan Industrial Production, Australia Inflation Gauge, NZ Business Confidence, China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI, German Retail Sales, UK Current Account, UK GDP, Italy CPI, German CPI, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
1/7 NZ Building Permits, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, Japan TANKAN Report, Australia Commodity Prices, UK/France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI, EU CPI, US Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jolts Jobs Report
2/7 Australia Building Permits/Retail Sales, EU Employment, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, Challenger Jobs Report, ADP Jobs Report
3/7 Australia/Japan/China Services PMI, NZ Commodity Price Index, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, UK/France/German/EU Services/Composite PMI, ECB Minutes, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment, US Services/Composite PMI, US ISM Services PMI
4/7 Independence Day, German Factory Orders
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