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The WTO has just released the October edition of its Global Trade Outlook. Global merchandise trade has been stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, but the outlook for 2026 is weaker.
Here are some key points from the WTO's October 7 update: 2025 Trade Highlights - Global merchandise trade growth has been revised up to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August.
- AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment, drove nearly half of trade growth, rising 20% year-on-year.
- Frontloading of imports in North America ahead of tariffs supported higher trade volumes.
- South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year, with trade excluding China up about 9%.
- Total merchandise trade volume rose 4.9% in the first half of 2025, while trade value increased 6%.
 2026 Outlook - Merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to 0.5% as tariff impacts and a cooling global economy take effect.
- All regions are likely to see weaker imports, with only North America, Europe, and the CIS showing modest export gains.
- The main risk remains the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty.
Global Services Trade - Services exports growth is slowing, with forecasts of 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, down from 6.8% in 2024.
- Transport services are particularly affected, with growth expected to fall from 4.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and just 1.8% in 2026.
- Travel and digital services are expected to continue growing, but more moderately.
Regional Insights - Fastest export growth in 2025: Asia and Africa.
- Slower exports: North America, Europe, CIS.
- Strongest import growth: Africa and Least Developed Countries.
- Weakest import growth: North America.
Key Takeaways
Global trade held up well in 2025 thanks to strong demand for AI-related goods, early import activity ahead of tariffs, and the resilience of emerging markets. Looking ahead to 2026, challenges are expected as tariffs take full effect and global growth slows. However, there is still potential upside: continued demand for AI products and related services could provide a boost to trade. As WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala notes, "Trade did well in 2025 because of the rules-based system, but current disruptions are a reminder that we need to rethink how trade works for everyone."
Head over to our website for report details. Amanda Bradfield - Head of International Freight & Logistics - FTA | APSA
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