Xe Morning Update - Your daily market wrap

Thursday, November 13, 2025

 

Developments in markets for Wednesday 12 November......

  • Snapshot: S&P500/Nasdaq?? yields??, crude oil??, gold??US dollar??
  • AUD/USD:??advances back to midpoint of 6-mth range, tests 0.6550
  • Market awaits resumption critical data as shutdown set to end before week's end
  • September nonfarm payrolls could be released as early as next week
  • Day ahead: Aussie jobs and UK GDP the two tier 1 data releases


Each morning we bring you up to speed with the latest market news, including the events and themes that are impacting currencies and other related asset classes......

 

 

 

With news flow remaining sparse, the market has entered a holding pattern as it awaits the resumption of U.S. government-issued data. The shutdown appears poised to conclude before the week's end, bringing a sense of anticipation and cautious optimism. The House will vote on the temporary spending bill later in the day following a successful Senate vote, earlier in the week. On Monday, eight moderate Senate Democrats joined forces with Republicans to support a compromise plan. This plan aims to reopen the federal government until January 30 and ensure funding for certain agencies through the end of September next year.
 
It could take several days or in some cases weeks for government agencies to resume normal operations following what has been a record long government shutdown, now in its 43rd day. Several agencies that produce critical economic data, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have halted operations altogether meaning the data collection and analysis must recommence before the normal cadence of releases resumes.
 
Forgoing two BLS issued labour market reports that include the most widely observed data point across the globe: nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the Fed has been flying blind, opting to cut at the October FOMC meeting but casting doubt over a December cut due to the data fog. It's hoped that the September jobs report will be released next week. Should the trend of soft labour market metrics continue, market pricing for a quarter point cut will again firm. The implied probability of a quarter-point cut on 10 December currently sits around two-thirds-of-a-percent.
 
Prior to the conclusion of the 28-29 October FOMC meeting, market pricing had assigned a near 90% implied probability to cuts in both October and December with some talk of a larger, half-point cut gaining traction. However, Powell chose to kick back against market expectations, stating a December cut "is not a foregone conclusion."

 

 

 

US equity markets as at time of morning update release and may not represent session closing prices  

 

 

The dollar index (DXY) advanced, climbing from below 99.00 to log five-month highs just shy of 100.40 on 05 November. Topside momentum has stalled over the past half-dozen trading days, perhaps indicative of dollar bulls adjusting positioning ahead of the resumption of NFP, CPI and other critical data points. DXY has tracked sideways between 99.30 and 99.70, this week.
 
In turn, the Australian dollar has halted its slide which commenced via the reversal off the 29 October swing high, located a couple of pips shy of 0.6620. Advancing in three of the past four days of gains, AUD/USD peaked above the 100-day moving average, sustaining price action around the mid-point of the prevailing 6-month range. Should the resumption of BLS labour market data next week record ongoing softness, expectations are for AUD/USD to have another crack at clearing 0.6600 and trade with an upside bias through December as both favourable year-end seasonals and a December Fed cut support a stronger Aussie.
 
Shifting our attention to the day ahead, domestic jobs numbers and UK GDP present as the potential market movers, a below consensus print for the latter adding further weight to the case for a BoE cut on 18 December. Regarding the labour market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick down from 4.5% to 4.4% whilst 20K new jobs were created in October. An in-line or stronger-than-expected report would cast doubt over the need for additional RBA easing in 1H 2026.
 
The Aussie remains a notable outperformer against the Kiwi, AUD/NZD seeking to continue its impressive ascent to fresh 12-year highs beyond 1.1600 having staged a modest rebound over the past two trading days. Negative divergence - a technical development that occurs when a momentum indicator, such as the relative strength index (RSI) fails to make a new high as the price makes a new high, can be a reliable predictor of the conclusion of a major trend. The pair must reset into a lower range between 1.1300 and 1.1450 to entertain a basing call.
 
As for AUD/USD, attention is locked on the 100-day moving average and 0.6550 resistance - price action advancing beyond would be a notable victory for AUD bulls, sustaining positive momentum.
 
Have a good day.
Stuart Talman (stuart.talman@xe.com)
Xe Corporate

 

 

 

 

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