| Executive director's message |
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Last month's ABARES Outlook 2026 conference brought together leading voices to explore the major issues shaping Australian agriculture, fisheries and forestry.
The program addressed food security and global trade uncertainty, alongside other emerging challenges, drawing on new insights and data to support decision-making across the sector.
We are grateful for the contributions of all those who joined us either in-person or online.
These conversations have taken on even greater significance in the weeks since as we acknowledge the situation in the Middle East is creating uncertainty for farmers and the broader agricultural industry.
ABARES is closely tracking developments in global and domestic markets, including what farmers can expect for input costs over the coming year.
We will release updated forecasts in our Agriculture Commodities and Australian Crop reports on 2 June - these will reflect the latest expectations for production, input costs and farm profitability.
A fond farewell
After eight years with ABARES, it's time to say goodbye.
I am proud of the Bureau and thankful for the dedicated people I have worked with. Leading such a well-respected organisation with more than 80 years of history has been a privilege.
I will be returning to the department in May to take on a new role in our Trade and International Division.- Jared Greenville |
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Main image: ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville (middle) with the Outlook 2026 commodities spotlight team of ABARES analysts (L-R) Vincent Hemmings-Kavanagh, Harrison Tuynman, Sean Bellew, Fred Litchfield, Tom Killalea and Amelia Brown.
Above left: Vicki Manson (Group Executive, Australian Climate Service) presenting in Session 7: Understanding climate risk.
Above right: (L-R) Katie McRobert (Executive Director, Australian Farm Institute); Liz Ritchie (Chief Executive Officer, Regional Australia Institute), and Claire Taylor (2023 Nuffield Scholar and Outlook MC) in Session 4: Navigating agriculture's social licence.
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| Latest broadacre farmland price estimates |
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The ABARES Farmland Price Indicator - March 2026 update provides the latest estimates for Australian broadacre farmland prices through an innovative and simple to operate dashboard.
Our findings show:- Broadacre farmland prices in Australia have generally experienced strong growth since 1992.
- Prices have increased in 2025 at a more gradual pace across most farmland types.
- The average price per hectare of broadacre farmland has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8% over the last 10 years
- Over the last 10 years, strong average annual growth has been observed in cropping farmland (14.2%), beef farmland in the southern MLA zone (14.1%) and dairy farmland (11.8%).
Try the dashboard here.
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| CSIRO principal research scientist Donald Gaydon (left) demonstrating the online AADI tool at Outlook. |
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| AADI tool unveiled at Outlook 2026 |
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The Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI) project is a collaboration between ABARES and CSIRO, which integrates climate forecasts, agricultural models, and commodity prices to forecast farm business profits for Australian broadacre farms.
At this year's ABARES Outlook Conference, the team showcased the online AADI tool and gave attendees some hands-on experience with the prototype.
The aim of providing access to the tool was to understand how primary producers, agricultural services providers, and other attendees might use AADI, while also raising awareness of its development and functionality.
Outlook attendees were particularly intrigued by AADI's potential for data analysis, forecasting, and the ease of accessing historical information.
Many of the farmers who engaged with AADI were especially interested in using the outputs from AADI, alongside other sources of climate information, to better prepare for future climate and economic conditions.
The AADI forecast could allow farmers to make more informed decisions early in the season, for example about sowing or restocking.
The AADI team also received valuable feedback on possible future directions of the tool, including making the data accessible, adding more industries (especially dairy), and integrating information about the model's skill level to demonstrate how reliable the forecasts are. ABARES and CSIRO are currently exploring these options.
For more information visit Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators - DAFF.
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| Australian agriculture in a snapshot |
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Australian agriculture is adaptable, more productive and well placed to take advantage of the transition to net zero, according to the Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2026 Insights paper.
Australian agriculture, fisheries and forestry combined has grown by 45% in the last 20 years, with an increase in real terms from $69.3 billion in 2004-05 to $100.3 billion in 2024-25.
The report shows the industry continues to perform strongly, with the value of production reaching the third highest on record in 2024-25 in real terms.
Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2026 covers agriculture's role in the broader economy, production trends, exports, non-tariff measure impacts, biosecurity, employment, farm incomes, industry structure, climate variability impacts, productivity, natural resource management and sequestration.
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| Aggregate value of loans and leases to the farm sector, 2017–18 to 2024–25. Each column shows the total value of loans and leases outstanding at 30 June (in 2025–26 dollars). Source: APRA |
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| Farm sector lending analysis |
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An ABARES analysis of the latest agricultural lending statistics provided by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) shows a net increase in aggregate lending to the farm sector in 2024–25 of 5% (in real terms) compared with the previous year.
The Trends in farm debt: Agricultural lending data 2024–25 report found net lending to the farm sector increased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory during 2024–25, with the largest percentage increases in Western Australia (8.2%) and South Australia (7.5%).
In 2024–25 aggregate lending increased in 11 of the 14 industry groups. The broadacre cropping industry experienced the biggest increase in absolute terms with lending up by $3.3 billion.
The report includes a data dashboard and a downloadable spreadsheet that allow users to explore trends in farm lending at the state and industry levels.
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| ABARES economist Jay Ryder and social scientist Robert Kancans at this year's Tertiary to Work Fair at the Australian National University, Canberra. |
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| Graduate development program opening soon |
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We're looking for the next generation of researchers to join our team in 2027!
If you're a high-achieving and motivated graduate or early career economist, mathematician, statistician, data scientist, computer scientist or physicist, we want to hear from you.
No background in agriculture, fisheries or forestry? No problem. What matters most is your curiosity, analytical mindset and passion for impactful work.
At ABARES, we're proud of our diverse, inclusive and flexible workplace – where collaboration thrives and ideas matter more than job titles.
Applications open in May. Visit our website to learn how to apply and for more information. |
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